Fiscally nuts. Socially insane.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Powerline Paul Calls it Early

Paul Mirengoff of Powerline: "I consider Obama the favorite. One can usually predict the outcome of the general election, and come pretty close on the margin, by considering just a few variables: how the economy is doing, whether we're at war and how popular the war is, which party holds the White House and how long it has held it, and how popular the president is.

This year, these "fundamentals" point to a Democratic victory of at least 10 percentage points.

Weighing against this outcome is, first, the fact that McCain is a better than average nominee in terms of electability. For one thing, he does not have a close association with the unpopular president. In addition, his appeal to independent and centrist voters is well known. Second, Obama may well prove a worse than average nominee. He lacks anything like the experience voters look for in a president, and he's an extremist as presidential nominees go, a perception that now is reinforced by some of his unusual associations.

At this stage, though, it seems more likely than not that these factors won't overcome the fundamentals.

You all heard that. Paul Mirengoff just called November for Obama. Already. Well, I disagree, and I can't wait to see him be wrong - again - this election season.

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