Fiscally nuts. Socially insane.

Monday, January 7, 2008

What Exactly is On the Line in NH?

Ok, so the New Hampshire primary is tomorrow, and there's a lot on the line. Quite unfortunately, most of you don't know exactly what is on the line. Here's a quick summary...

On the left:

If Obama wins by a solid margin, it's going to be tough for the rest to catch up.

If Hillary loses by a solid margin (any more than 5%), as she did in Iowa, she's out. Her campaign is already talking about giving up, and a terrible loss will end it. She had momentum, and lost it. If she wins in New Hampshire, she can prove Iowa was a mistake. If she loses big time again, though, her dreams will be shattered, and it will be down to two real contenders on the left. (Right now, the polls aren't in her favor, either.)

Look for a lot of drop-outs from the 2nd tier left candidates.

On the right:

McCain needs to win to stay in the race. New Hampshire conservatives have thrown their weight behind McCain. Almost all the local newspapers have endorsed him, as well as many local politicians and influential leader. So if he is to win anywhere, it will be New Hampshire. If he can't win there, which he most likely will, McCain's run is over.

Romney needs a strong finish. If he doesn't start putting the big bucks to use, his campaign has been spinning its wheels for nothing. If he doesn't place top three, look for a lazy and poor campaign for the rest of the race.

Giuliani put no effort into Iowa, and paid the price as a result. He didn't put much more into New Hampshire, but he still needs a solid finish.

Huckabee doesn't really need a strong finish in New Hampshire, but if he does contend, it may surprise people over his support in liberal New England. (New England behind a southern Baptist minister; I would be shocked.)

Thompson hasn't placed all that well thus far, but his states are coming.

Paul may actually pull out a top three placement here.

1 comment:

Richard said...

Paul needs to place third, I think, if he wants to finally come off as viable.

I see Obama doing well, and I see Romney's campaign hurtling to destruction sooner rather than later.